Bench Mark Comments
If you have had time to look through the bench mark data we presented yesterday, you will have seen that there is no free lunch when you invest with a Macro methodology. Sometimes the events take longer than you would like to make themselves known. The best case in our own data is the period of 8/15/07 to 10/9/07, the market was up 11 percent and our portfolio declined 13 percent during the period. We were bearish, the market continued to go up, and we stayed short.
Situations like this occur and if you are not a contrarian you may be more than uncomfortable. So think twice about following our advice if there is not a fit on philosphy.
We may soon offer a fee based short-term technical system for readers who fit more with a trend following short-term mindset.
We are a little surprised at the gloom that is so prevalent this morning. Both of our technical programs, long-term and short-term remain long and the market has just set back to the area of the short-term buy signal yesterday. As to all the talk of the desire by the market to see a lowered Fed fund rate, we think that would be a mistake at this point. The current interest rate combined with liquidity will work just fine.
11:39 AM CDT