Risk / Reward

With the stock market, basis the raw S&P index, locked into a tight 1331 to 1386 range traders need to be aware of the big picture every day, if the market breaches the 1386 level the upside possibility of the market is 1420 , if the market breaches the 1331 area the eventual downside is 1120.

At the moment the factors that could lead to a rally are: 1) lower oil prices; 2) summer / election rally euphoria.  Factors that could lead to a decline are: 1) higher oil prices; poor than expected earnings.  The tiers of this short term range of the S&P are currently: 1386,1372,1359, 1345,1331. 

Today is oil inventory day, so the stock market is starting out lower in expectation that low inventorys will lead to higher oil prices.  Last week that didn’t hold water, lets see this week.

6:51 AM CDT