Macro Technical View Continues to Unfold

Back in mid-March the macro technicals turned on interest rates, the dollar, and gold.  That top in bonds and gold and bottom in the dollar are the markers for much of what is unfolding now.  I would view these as soft markers, in that at some point in the next 18 months they will be pierced, but for now they are important.  They have allowed the stock market to rally and set the stage for selloffs in commodities. 

Oil and grain rallys remained persistant, but eventually gradually higher market interest rates have started to take the starch out  a while.  Interest rates cannot go up much, but they are not going lower for now.

In this scenario, stock markets remain in an uneasy bounce from the 1260 low in the S&P, with much of the buying concentrating in the tech and small cap stocks. This kind of uneasy environment will continue until it ends.  As such short term traders can play the little moves, long-term investors have already used the rally to 1437 to set their positions.