How to be a Contrarian

Being a contrarian means one has to pick his/her points where the probabilities are high for a contrary event.  At the moment looking for a stock market rally is a contrarian move as we are in a bear market.  We are near a juncture where a number of contrary events could all occur at once.  The dollar is set up for a rally, commodities and gold are set for a fall, and stocks are set for a rally.  Because contrary events occur when the majority have an opposite position because the fundamentals and news are always leaning with the trend, I have found it helpful to back into the argument from a fundamental viewpoint, ie. what could happen that would shake up the markets.  From my perspective a short-term contrary move would more than likely be interest rate based.  So with the markets looking for further interest rate cuts, what would happen if they FED started leaking that they have done enough on rates, that lower rates are not needed ?  I am watching for this and gingerly watching for technical signals to provide support.  Bonds are the leading edge in this scenario.

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