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Take a jump to the front page comments dated March 11, 2015 titled “A Look at Market Behavior Patterns”.

As the first Quarter 2015 comes to a close the Macro’s appear to be ready to unravel the QE III story;  the story of how cheap money did two things, 1) create surplus product and 2) move money to the top of the economic ladder.

What is ironic is that investors are as complacent as I have seen them in the whole move up from the 1450 area of the S&P that existed at the start of QE III.  An interviewee on CNBC just yesterday said “ Bull Markets Die very Slowly, there is nothing to fear here”.  What they did not have on the show was an interviewee who would have truthfully said  “ Artificial Markets are an Unknown Quantity, and we are at a Point of Maximum Risk”.

Today’s Portfolio Positions in General

As we are in a transition period on Stocks and Bonds we have to follow the old trader saying “If you cannot be long be short a little bit”, when the Macro sell signals trigger we will increase the size of the short positions.

In my opinion the Dollar is in the early stages of a Macro bull move.  The second stage up will trigger when we take out the mid-March highs and then the big trigger, the October 2008 Dollar highs.

And, Gold and Oil are bear markets that will ride a micro bounce wave based on Middle East issues.