If you Needed Confirmation

Yesterday’s market rally should have convinced you, there is big money that makes stock market price levels work. The level of the market lows on Tuesday had to be held or we would have seen a big break down in prices.  And, voila, we got a bounce.

Stocks are now going to bounce around awaiting the coming FED meeting.

It is interesting that the Macro Waves indicator we built and have used since 2005 is pointing to some critical levels starting tomorrow.  We calculate the Waves using three different data streams, daily, weekly, and monthly. Here is where they are at the moment (see tables below). Confirmations of changes come at the end of a particular data period, i.e. end of day, end of week, end of month.

We have adapted the waves to the various ETF’s that we watch.  Keep in mind these are Macro waves, not short termed trading indicators.

Macro Waves based on daily data:

S&P 500          ( SPY )       Up Wave                                       Since Dec 2009

Dollar               ( UUP )       Up Wave                                      Since Dec 2011

Bonds               ( TLT )       Up Wave                                       Since Feb 1991

Commodities   ( DBC )        Down Wave                                 Since May 2012

Gold                  ( GLD )        Down Wave                                 Since Jan 2013

Macro Waves based on weekly data:

S&P 500          ( SPY )       Unconfirmed Down Wave    Triggered Jun 2015

Dollar               ( UUP )       Up Wave                                       Since Dec 2011

Bonds               ( TLT )       Up Wave                                       Since Feb 1991

Commodities   ( DBC )        Down Wave                                 Since May 2012

Gold                  ( GLD )        Down Wave                                 Since Nov 2012

Macro Waves based on monthly data:

S&P 500          ( SPY )       Unconfirmed Down Wave    Triggered Jun 2015

Dollar               ( UUP )       Up Wave                                       Since Dec 2011

Bonds               ( TLT )       Up Wave                                       Since Feb 1991

Commodities   ( DBC )        Down Wave                                 Since May 2012

Gold                  ( GLD )        Down Wave                                 Since Dec 2012

A few things stand out as interesting.

1) Tomorrows close on the S&P will decide if the weekly wave turns down for the first time since April 2012. I will point out however that the weekly chart got fooled between December 2011 and April 2012 while the waves based on daily and monthly data did not.

2) The monthly close on the S&P 500, is probably the most significant thing to watch as to whether it confirms the early leanings this month of that Wave.

3) When one combines values of the Waves based on daily, weekly, and monthly, the Dollar stands out as the strongest maket.

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