Macro’s Moving Up Front

A gold close under 1688 will start the second leg down since the September 2011 highs.  The dollar is asserting itself.

No change in our long term views.

Short Gold.

Long Dollar

Bearish on commodities but no positions.

A little short stocks, not because we are bearish, just that the markets are fully valued and this is going to be a sideways year.   We have not seen the lows for the year.  The coming employment report will probably be the end of the really good news because the underlying economics are being held hostage by congress.

And on politics, while the Republicans illustrate a high level of incompetence, Obama does not have it in the bag as many say.  His problem is that he does not connect with the angry blue collar/middle class voter and because of their reliance on Fox News they will vote against their economic interests.   He had better wake up and get back to the grassroots. 

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