The Cultural Bubble, last hurrah
Amazon, Apple, NetFlix, McDonalds, Dunkin Donuts, what do they have in common? Internet and cheap bad food that helps the populace deal with the stress of unemployment and political chaos.
In terms of trend the stock and commodity markets basically topped out in the February-late April 2011 period. There have been a few markets like the Nasdaq and sugar that have made new highs recently but I would call them nominal special situations. The economy is slowing and things are getting ready to go into a protracted decline.
Keep in mind that this is not about whether or not the debt ceiling will be raised. One way or another someone will cave, maybe after a few days of high drama after Aug 2nd, but at some point the ceiling will be raised. The real issue is that the recovery was not allowed to build a stable base after the Big Recession, the fed money went to speculation and congress would not allow the employment situation to recover. Now we are going into deficit reduction mode, ie reduced GNP mode.