Five May be Enough

A lot of complex stuff has piled into the investment mix over the past year.  To date the stock market has viewed everything is good, probably because the tax cut for corporations, funded by the people,  is smoothing the way.

Five Days May be Enough

While I don’t know if there is a technical market factor called “five is enough”, something seems to be evolving today.  Today is the fifth day that the S&P has explored the area above the March 13, 2018 rebound high of 2802.4.  This was the rebound high after the January 26th high for the market.  We still believe that high is the cycle high and everything else is a wandering market trying to assimilate the disruptive complexities.  It is true that the NASDAQ has made new highs since January, but that is just the hot tech sector.

World Trade Alliances are Key

Europe and China are figuring out how to fight US policies.

As such I suspect that the market will start to give back in the next couple of days, a close under 2802.4 will be important and a close below the low of March 13th of 2764 would to me signal a drop below the 200 day average.

Late Update at 11:40 AM CDT 

The ten year yield took out the 16 day high today and now has an outside day, what does this mean? Is economic growth stalled?