What is behind this? There seems to be no limit on speculative money spilling out of the government. It seems like the lesson is, government deficits don’t count. Likewise the Federal Reserve balance sheet appears to have no limit funding…Continue Reading →
The Crash, That IS Our view is that we are seeing an elongated Cyclical top in the stock market. The reasons have been elaborated on at length since the January 2018 Fracture date. Nothing fundamentally seems to make a difference….Continue Reading →
Based on the commentators, it would appear that a FED cut of 0.25 is in the bag this week. That may be the case, although the data may not support it now. But in any case if the cut is…Continue Reading →
All the clamor and market action on interest rates lately seem to be small picture actions. See below a recent study that we have done using a Normalized Interest Rate base.
Headed much lower While there will be bounces before, we are looking at 2600 area on S&P for first of many support areas.
Market is setup for a major down move from here.
Central Banks are Learning Draghi’s difficulties at the ECB yesterday illustrated that low-low yields are not a good or easy answer. The Powell Dilemma Next Up is the September Federal Reserve Meeting and our guess is that they are going…Continue Reading →
Is there no resistance to this phenomenon? It seems a bit like unprecedented times, with the FED caving to White House pressure and an orchestrated output of known negatives being declared positives by the White House.
The mystery of why we probably are headed into a recession is more about international trade than some other factors being mentioned. Here is our take on some trade related issues. Dominant US Presence In general the US as the…Continue Reading →
Short Term Stuff A combination of the tail end of large growth trends in the US deficit, Corporate debt, and Personal debt, knife edge issues, appear to be have had an effect in pushing 30 year interest rates up since…Continue Reading →