Blog

BLOG / MOST RECENT POSTS

The Days That Changed Everything

The stock market is trying hard, trying to ignore what is going on around it: The widely publicized Economic Growth Hope.. The Unfunded Tax Cuts… The Tariffs… FED interest rate policy… The Sanctions… and Peak Cycle earnings.. As outlined yesterday,…Continue Reading →

Posted in Big Picture, Fed Comments, Technical Talk | Leave a comment

Are Tariffs and Sanctions Changing the GDP Inputs?

This morning in taking a look at the movement since the January 26 Swing Point, three things stand out, one is that while we see a little blip back in the yield curve, the biggest thing that has occurred is…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals | Leave a comment

Bending but Not Broken

What we are talking about here is the Market Fracture charts that we use to put a number on an economic environment and hopefully make sense of it. First, it feels good to have been outside the mainstream for the…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Big Picture | Leave a comment

As Tension Increases, Monday is the Key Day

Setup for Earnings. We got some bounce in stocks and commodities the past couple of days as we move into earnings season. The S&P resistance level of 2676 is being hit this morning in the pre-market session. Flattening Continues. Along…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals | Leave a comment

Staging for Earnings

Today looks to be a reaction day, and setup for earnings tomorrow.  So the S&P could pop up to 2676. This will be a major sell opportunity. The yield curve continued to flatten yesterday, reaching a new flattening low since…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals | Leave a comment

Tension in the Air

Volatility Massacre We have bee sitting back the past few days, letting the volatility massacre the players, as the bulls pay too much on these crazy rallys and then panic at the end of many of those days.  Trading equity…Continue Reading →

Posted in All Highlights, Analytic Fundamentals, Fed Comments, Political Talk | Leave a comment

Waiting for Things to Unravel

The next news day for us will be on April 16th when we will see retail sales and a good view of GDP for the first quarter. Of course there will be some earnings coming in at times and that…Continue Reading →

Posted in Big Picture | Leave a comment

Trump Whiplash

I am not talking about Stormy Daniels. I am talking about a President who uses the bully pulpit to stimulate the stock market for 18 months and then uses the same pulpit to teach the world a lesson on trade….Continue Reading →

Posted in Big Picture, Political Talk, Technical Talk | Leave a comment

Why we don’t Believe the Growth Story

We keep being asked why we don’t believe the Growth Story.  It seems very simple, most of the growth stimulus is piled on the Production side, rather than the Consumption side. It is true, the producers had to hire people,…Continue Reading →

Posted in Big Picture, Intuitive Fundamentals | Leave a comment

Volatility around the Buildout Hope

As mentioned yesterday, the first technical confirmation of the downside move out of the head formation on stocks will occur when we see the three day average under the 200 day average.  Again, this is a big deal, the bulls…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Technical Talk | Leave a comment

An Accident that Grew Out of Arrogance

The US economy is in the public crosshairs, kind of ironic as this central problem of arrogance started many years ago, when free market risk was tabled and everyone making anything got a government backstop. How did this accident Happen?…Continue Reading →

Posted in Big Picture, Political Talk | Leave a comment

Peak Employment and Peak Earnings

The story I heard on CNBC yesterday was about how employment numbers and earnings are going to push the stock market back through the January highs and then higher.  To that I will just say, I think we have either…Continue Reading →

Posted in Big Picture | Leave a comment

A Little Reflection is in Order

Political and Economic Disruption With no new significant change news over the Easter / Passover weekend, this may be a time to look back, review and get all the ducks in a row as the stock market heads into an…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Political Talk | Leave a comment

Both Down? With Update at 11:00 AM CDT

I always find it instructive to watch for what the market commentators downplay. This week most of the attention has been focused on the FANG stocks, especially Facebook and Amazon. What have not heard much about is and what we…Continue Reading →

Posted in Big Picture | Leave a comment

The Scenario is Unfolding

The Scene While there is a lot fluff and articles coming out of CNBC and Bloomberg this morning, talk of why the 200 day average will hold, we stick with the short term view outlined the past two days that…Continue Reading →

Posted in Big Picture | Leave a comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

3 + 2 =