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Six months of Sideways Action and what about the 2018 Surprise Forecasts

Euphoria In the midst of the euphoria this morning on stock prices, here is a look at what has occurred over the past six months as the Fracture that unfolded between January and March went into a holding pattern over…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Big Picture | Leave a comment

An Apex World

What has happened to Moderation.  All around us, whether in the economy, the stock market, politics, seemingly everywhere,  there is no middle ground anymore. In the case here of the stock market, we see a rising chart, prices on the…Continue Reading →

Posted in Big Picture | Leave a comment

The Conundrum, will Buildout be followed by Consumption

Todays 2nd Quarter GDP update continues to show the same story we have seen since the US Tax Changes went into effect, money going into Tech and Equipment buildout with stagnant consumption and exports.  That buildout will be good if…Continue Reading →

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The Trump Economy has Peaked

Unless you are day trader or you are getting out of your long positions, today’s new highs in the S&P are meaningless. Various Fed indicators are starting to show the effects of a one-sided tax influenced spurt.  I look for…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Big Picture, Fed Comments | Leave a comment

The Yield Curve is not a Causative Factor

It is a Predictive Factor.   2. Our guess is that the Government Debt Funded Tax Cut economic rally peaked in July, with the August numbers being the start of a rollover that will accelerate in September.     3….Continue Reading →

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F-150 Truck Sales

To me watching sales for Ford F-150’s is the most fascinating indicator of what is going on in the US economy.  This Government debt funded economy action has moved into the retail sector as tech has lost its luster. As…Continue Reading →

Posted in Intuitive Fundamentals, Political Talk | Leave a comment

The Day Before…..

the Crash, is the important day to know when you are in this kind of environment where things are unraveling and the Market thinks it has its timing figured out. The Problem is that the market cannot know the day…Continue Reading →

Posted in Intuitive Fundamentals | Leave a comment

The First and Most

First let me say that I believe the Trump administration is right in trying to even the playing field with China, we have talked about this for years.  What I do have a big problem with is how they are…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Political Talk | Leave a comment

Summer is Almost Over and..

The big stage of the Fracture is just beginning.  To confirm this chart signal, Gold needs to find a floor. Remember we like to live in the Macro world where patience is the number one factor. I guess we needed…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals | Leave a comment

Let’s Just Keep it Simple at this Point

In my opinion…. Stocks are having a rolling top which started in January with the S&P and is now finishing with the Tech Stocks.. Oil and commodities in general have topped recently…. Gold is bottoming… Interest rates yield spreads are…Continue Reading →

Posted in Intuitive Fundamentals | Leave a comment

Waiting for the Trigger

The Fracture setup is complete. You have seen the upward rebound since July 5th, we may spend a few more days messing around at current levels but more importantly the crack down is ready to commence and go through the…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals | Leave a comment

Rebound High Day, Followed by Inside range Day, Followed by Outside Day, and Lower close

A Classic Technical Formation on the S&P index over the past three days, if the market closes lower today, the icing on the cake  will completed. As to GDP, if I had to make a guess on third quarter GDP,…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Technical Talk | Leave a comment

Fracture Line Rebound Topped on Tuesday and

and continues to retreat. The fracture line, to repeat is based around long gold, long 30 yr bonds, short 2 year bonds, short commodities, and short the dollar. The underlying first force is the FED raising short term rates and…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Fed Comments | Leave a comment

An Important Rebound in the Fracture Line with Update on 7-24-18

As the summer peaks we see the focus on peak effects of the tax cuts on earnings and front running of manufacturing by corporations prior to the tariff effects hit (note two key words, Peak and effects). The Fracture chart…Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals | Leave a comment

Five May be Enough

A lot of complex stuff has piled into the investment mix over the past year.  To date the stock market has viewed everything is good, probably because the tax cut for corporations, funded by the people,  is smoothing the way….Continue Reading →

Posted in Analytic Fundamentals, Intuitive Fundamentals | Leave a comment

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