Executive Suite Piles on the Risk

The Philly Fed and Empire State early May surveys of manufacturing numbers show that the executive suites are still buying the hope and awe story, while risks to a good outcome multiply.

All this is a continuation of the manufacturing – final demand breach that has been developing.

The market players seemed to be holding on, hoping for good news on NAFTA or China soon.

We will see how that works out.

One of our 2018 forecasts is moving towards the front, i.e. the collapse of Brexit talks.  Europe as a whole has a real incentive to move away from the U.S. and become part of a bigger world.

Isolationist America will be left to go it alone, maybe including the lapdog Japan.