Chaos, The New Paradigm

Yesterday,  Less Fear, and a lot of reflation hope.

The bigger Issue

A major paradigm shift started with Brexit and the 2016 US Presidential Primary. This shift will take a while, years, as a shift to new social, political, and economic standards are built.  To my mind the build up for this has been some 40 + years in the making, basically since the recovery from WWII was completed in the late 1960’s.  So I view Brexit, Trump, etc as being stepping stones to something totally different.  That means that what we have been seeing lately is not what we are going to end up with, just an interlude.  So how does this happen, surely not from Washington, it has to happen at the grassroots level.  So you will need to run your portfolio based on the current fundamentals, rather than current hype.

Tracking Fund Check

The charts below show that things are still up in the air with the NASDAQ continuing as the favorite hiding place.  EXTH is ahead of ECT but is feeling pressure from the coming announcements on US tax policy.

The “No Reflation” EXTH Fund is long T-Bonds, Long Gold, Short stocks, and short oil, using ETF’s.

The “Reflation” ECT Fund, has the growth based portfolio, i.e. long stocks, short some T-bonds, long some oil, and long a little dollar, all in ETF’s.