The Election and the Markets-A First Look

While we jumped around a bit over the past few weeks on our ideas for the election, our central beliefs were discussed on July 25, 2016, check archives.

It is interesting to see  commentators on CNBC talk about bringing back Reagan style Trickle Down Economics. That is unlikely to happen. The people who voted for Trump are looking for a reset. They have voted for the end of sending money to the top where it gets stagnant, and instead want it to move to areas where growth can restart.  If Trump forgets this, he will run into trouble quickly.

Second point, the stock markets turned down on October 11 and that signal remains intact.

My view is that the 2016 summer stock market highs will hold with probably a nominal retest and remain intact for the next half macro cycle, approximately 9 years.