May Have to Rethink Long-Term Forecast

September 16th was an important long-term cycle date.  The fact that the markets are holding around the area of that date is impressive and bears analysis.  In the short-term sense the Stock and gold markets are overbought and will sell off from here.  How the markets act on that sell-off will be the most important part of the remainder of the year.  Areas to watch are around 950 on both the S&P and gold.

My overall view expressed yesterday, that the balloon pump is not big enough to fill the balloon still holds.  On the other-hand I do have to applaud the Obama administration for doing a good job in a difficult situation on many fronts.  Change is unfolding slowly and big issues are being tackled.  On the economic side the issue of unemployment has finally come to front and center and talk of possible fixes have no doubt given the stock and gold markets life recently.  The big social and foreign policy directions, may however, be the bigger story.  If Change really happens here, and it appears a good possibility that it will, we will see a Public Option that will add competitiveness to health care and we will take a stand on Afghanistan that sends a message the we really did learn something in Vietnam and Irag, and nation building is not our approach anymore.

8:40 AM CDT