Risk is Down

Yesterday I was travelling by car.  That can be dangerous because it is easy to listen to Sirius and CNBC too much.  But it was interesting hearing the commentators and guests explain that the risk for investors is that they will miss the upside.  Seems like a strange, maybe funny time to worry about that scenario.

The dollar is a key factor here.  It has come down to revisit the early June lows where we got bullish on it.  Gold is playing around trying to rally.  The CNBC crowd seems to be unanamous about being bearish the dollar and long gold.  Our contention remains that when the wheels come off the train it will be deflation based and it will hit other currencies harder than the US Dollar. 

There are some cycle turn dates that point to early September as being the start of the major decline.  When the absolute high will occur will be sometime before that period and we still see the 974 S&P level as an important possibility, although not a certainty in the interim.

The EMA ETF Fund Nav is at 1123.

9:09 AM CDT